Blog : What Everyone is Missing in Europe

by Peter Leeds on July 13th, 2015

Seriously, this will be dull, but the part the media is missing matters a lot.  Keep reading through the preamble.

 

You've probably heard a lot about Greece lately.  Longer term Peter Leeds followers have been aware of this situation for years.  (Just as we're explaining now that America can not mathematically pay off it's debts and obligations, but this won't hit the news quite yet).
 
The Greek economy can only pay their debts by getting more funds from the very organizations to which they owe the money.  This has resulted in required guarantees from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Eurozone on behalf of the Greek government.
 
Two thirds of the Greek people voted 'NO' in their referendum against austerity, but what they earned as a result so far has been chaos - bank holidays, bank runs, limits to how much people can take out of their accounts, and a myriad of other issues.  Like any situation, it is the masses who suffer from the mistakes of the few.
 
Greece and the IMF worked out a deal over the weekend.  What is interesting is that this arrangement has EVEN MORE austerity items than which the people just voted against in their recent referendum.  The Greek government must vote in favour of this new plan in the next few days... or default on their debts.
 
So now we get to the part that matters, and which the media is missing:
 
During chaos, fortunes can be made!
 
Despite the tough stance by the Greek government, and then the strong response to the referendum by the population, the end result is that the IMF and Eurozone really are calling the shots.  While many Greeks want to leave the Eurozone, most want to remain.  At the end of the day, their fate truly will be dictated by Germany and France and 17 other nations in the EU.
 
However, when those 17 other nations include countries like Latvia, Estonia, Slovenia, Portugal, Slovakia, and Malta, you may understand better while I always call the IMF "Germany."  The EU is vaguely reminiscent of the "Coalition of The Willing," touted by George Bush, which really was an American engagement with a little lipstick in the form of Eritrea, El Salvador, and Bulgaria.
 
Germany and France can dictate what ever decision they choose to the other 17 EU nations.  
 
The amount of money Greece needs is peanuts to Germany and France.  
 
A failure of the Euro would be a major black mark on the "unified currency" experiment
 
Any failure to support Greece would mean that Latvia, Spain, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, and even Malta might fall like dominoes (The Euro wouldn't crack, it would shatter).
 
Spoiler Alert:  Most people forget that no matter what they've been posturing to the masses, the purpose of the European Union is to avoid war between Germany and France.  Just like America has never gone to war with a country which has a McDonald's, economic ties seemed like a good idea 81 years after the Great War ("The War to End All Wars"), and 54 years after the end of World War 2.
 
Memories of WW2 are still strong enough to have Germany and France do whatever is required to keep the Euro alive.  When I was in Berlin, the bullet holes were still visible in many of the walls of the buildings.  They will not let Greece fail yet.  They will at some point in the future (years from now, not months) when decisions are made by the next generation who don't really understand the horrendous, irreversible, disgusting nature of conflict.
 
Keep this in mind, as the major media needs you to fear for the Euro.  That way, you are more likely to keep watching.
 
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