Blog : Spoiler Alert! American Boots on the Ground

by Peter Leeds on August 17th, 2014

They say when dogs fight, you should let them go at it.  Then one dog proves dominant, the other subservient, and knowing the pecking order they never fight again.

Regardless, there will always be a place for breaking up a fight, especially if one dog, or person, and race of people is being killed.  However, I question if America needs to get involved in so many fights.  Surely they don't need to have forces in over 150 countries, while many of their own people can't afford food, and the streets are crumbling.

As reported by CNN, there are US Military personnel now, or within the last couple years, in Belgium, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, UK, Japan, Afghanistan, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Djbouti, Cuba, Hondurus...  Those are the big ones, and you probably understand why we have forces in some of those.  And it's not all active military involvement, of course.

However, there are also countries like Uruguay, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Togo, Mauritania, Oman, Botswana,  Timor, Laos, Diego Garcia, Moldova, Tajkistan, Turmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, and dozens of others you've probably never heard about.

And of course, there were 43 total troops in Russia as recently as 2011, and 76 in China.  

Should we have troops in Cote D'Ivoire?  Absolutely yes.  That nation is a humanitarian nightmare, and we should do everything we can to help.  I suggest, however, that it is going to require a lot more than the 8 personnel reported.  

The 9 reported in Syria probably can't do enough to stop terrorism, or oversee getting arms to those fighting al Assad's regime.  (Many of the rebellion fighters America assisted in Syria were from Al-Nusra Front, an Al-Qaeda off-shoot.  They have claimed terrorist attacks on civilians, and now make up a big part of ISIS (Islamic State in Iraq and Syria), who has been steam-rolling across the Middle East and now is being bombed by America, despite supporting them a few months ago).

What's my point?  I actually don't have one.  America has the capability to have troops in over 150 nations, but we've over-reached our understanding.  We're not even sure who the 'good guys' are, despite what John Kerry would tell you.  His 'good guys' just killed 100 men and kidnapped their wives and children, and we supported them against al Assad in Syria.  Now we're potentially working with Iran to stop them and their Islamic tidal wave.

Will America be able to shake ISIS from their newly formed Caliphate?  Not a chance.  The WW2 aerial bombardment of Monte Casino in Italy (1944) is just one real-world example of how aerial attacks are not effective, but there are so many others.

Should the USA put combat troops into Northern Iraq or Southern Syria?  That's what 50,000 ISIS fighters would gladly welcome.

Will ISIS eventually export terrorism to locations overseas?  Of course.

I don't pretend to have any answers to this rapidly mutating situation.  I would suggest that those making the decisions don't have a clue what they're doing.  Maybe our nation needs to decide what fights to get into, then go all in.  Otherwise, don't be involved.  

America was all in for the Revolutionary War, the War of 1812 (which is what created the 'White' House, after it was burned and needed painting), the Civil War... and of course WW2, despite coming late to the game.  

We were not committed in the same way to the Korean War, Vietnam, the Russian Civil War in 1917, and many others where victory can not be claimed.

Half-measures typically lead to full failures.  In the case of the Caliphate being formed by ISIS, this may be one of those times which make sense for unbridled and complete involvement.  I despise war, but I understand that it does have a place.

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Implications in stocks, and penny stocks, if the conflicts in Russia/Ukraine, Syria, ISIS, Palestine/Israel, and others intensify:

Expect oil prices to increase, Brent Crude will rise slightly more than Texas Light Sweet Crude.  

Precious Metals will rise in value, especially gold.

Underlying penny stock companies which produce these commodities may benefit.

There will be no additional sanctions against Russia.  EU and USA has played all their cards, in my opinion.

The VXX/Fear Index (after having fallen markedly last week) would spike higher.

Make sure to check out our penny stock selections the next few weeks.  These stocks may insulate you in the case of global instability and an increasing risk premium.