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OPEC member nations (Algeria, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iran, etc...) are set to meet November 27th. If oil prices are below $100, they will cut production to support prices. Oil prices will trend higher as a result, and potentially even before the meeting in anticipation.
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Alibaba Back Draft Crash

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Read all the past Blog entries here

alibabaAlibaba Back Draft Crash

- Friday's Initial Public Offering of Alibaba stock will likely be the largest I.P.O. ever (valuing Alibaba near $200 billion).

- Many investors will take money off of other positions to put funds towards Alibaba shares (Some pre-IPO, but mostly post-IPO).

- The back draft of money coming out of other positions may put pressure on all shares.

- Combined with highly positive investor sentiment, the Federal Reserve decisions this week, and a market that has performed so well for so long (without a correction), the Alibaba I.P.O. may be the pin which pricks the stock market balloon.

With Friday's Alibaba I.P.O set to be the largest Initial Public Offering ever, I have personally grown a little concerned.  This is my own opinion, and certainly not a suggestion that anyone else do or not do any thing specific.

A few headwinds have me concerned right now.  Ahead of what I term a potential Back Draft Crash, I will be moving a massive amount of my personal portfolio into cash for the next week or so.  If everything keeps going well, my downside will be the opportunity costs, meaning any money I would have made if I had still be fully invested in stocks.  This would probably be 1% at most.  It could also be a loss.  Either way, it won't be too significant.

Some of my concerns include:

- Investor Sentiment is highly optimistic right now.  (Sentiment is a contrarian indicator).

- The FED makes a few decisions and comments this week.  This could potentially be clarity that they will begin raising rates sooner than previously telegraphed.

- Quantitative Easing is the real reason stocks have been doing so well.  That bond buying program is being wound down, soon to be zero.

- The overall markets have been trending endlessly higher, without any correction.  Corrections are healthy. This market is not healthy.

So, I have and will personally adjust my mix of stocks.  I will also reassess mid next week.  If there's been no stock market stumble, then I will look at scaling back into various shares.

Remember, this is NOT trading advice.  This is only what I am doing.


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