Blog : The NFL / Stock Analysis Connection

by Peter Leeds on October 28th, 2015

People probably thought I was just trying to grab timely headlines when About.com published my article involving fantasy football.  I argued that there are many similarities between nearly every type of sports betting and picking winning penny stocks.  The same holds true for most games of cards, just as it applies to negotiation skills.
 
So I make a case that fantasy football is like investing in penny stocks, but was this just to attract eyeballs, clicks, and viewership?  Well, that would be partially correct, considering that my contract with About.com requires a lot of content each month.  There is of course another aspect to consider - I love poker, NFL, fantasy football, and all things of the sort, so taking some time to speak about them is just bonus for me.  
 
But the real point of all of this is that I don't consider it gambling.  I kicked a little butt the last few times I played poker, and when winning become increasingly consistent, it implies that there are factors at play other than luck.  
 
I turned $1,500 into over $6,000 at the most recent poker game, and made it to one of the final tables, but it was for charity (chrons and collitis), so we all walked out with zero.  (The overall winner got entered into the World Series of Poker, so he landed a pretty massive prize).
 
By the way, if you'd like to help the cause, learn more about Crohn's and Colitis and donate here.  
 
However, my latest foray into using my penny stock analysis skills has once again (for about the 12th time) proven that a similar approach will work for sports gambling, just as it does for poker or just about any type of negotiation.
 
Out of exactly 100 people, picking every single NFL game each week against-the-spread (ATS), I ended up first with a record of 11 correct and 3 wrong.  An explanation of ATS is below, but the point is that my system beat the other 99 people.  
 
Those are numbers with which you could make a living in Vegas, and actually destroyed just about any professional sports-bettor except for anyone who got temporarily ridiculously lucky.
 
ATS means that Vegas oddsmakers handicap the expected result, so that the chance of either team "beating the spread" is 50/50.  If Baltimore is expected to lose by 8 and a half points, they are the underdog.
 
They beat the spread if they win, tie, or lose by 8 points or less.  If Arizona had won by 9 or more, Baltimore would have not beaten the spread.
 
Of course, few of the individuals in the pool (mostly lawyers and investment bankers) have as much time as I do to watch and ponder the potential outcomes of many of the games.  Add to that the mostly Jewish make-up of the competitors puts them at a slight disadvantage during certain holidays which preclude electricity.  I also apologize for being as naive and unaware of Orthodox cultures as I am, and admit that I should have more of an understanding of the religion.
 
The point is that Leeds Analysis is effective in many aspects of life.  When I try to demonstrate a connection between penny stocks and poker, or between football and penny stocks, do not be so quick to dismiss it as an attempt to generate clicks on an article, or entertain for the purpose of entertainment.  I am not an entertainer.  
 
Like picking football games, you can tilt the odds in your favour by looking into as many aspects and variables as possible.  In other words, a full Leeds Analysis type of review will separate the winners from the rest of the pack.
 

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