Blog : Why We Will Have Boots on the Ground
by Peter Leeds on October 15th, 2014
= Here is what might pull us into war on the ground.
Kobane is a mainly Kurdish city in Northern Syria, along the Turkish border. Kobane is
already 50% lost to ISIS, and very likely to fall. The Turkish government considers the Kurds as separatist terrorists, and prove that they fear them even more than ISIS by:
already 50% lost to ISIS, and very likely to fall. The Turkish government considers the Kurds as separatist terrorists, and prove that they fear them even more than ISIS by:- standing by, while Kobane fell, despite plenty of Turkish tanks and troops a few hundred meters away.
- ignoring pleas from the Kurdish population in Turkey, which have since revolted and protested against their government's lack of action to help Kobane.
- refusing to transfer wounded fighters from Kobane to hospitals on the Turkish border.
- detainment of wounded Kurdish fighters by Turkey.
- launching air strikes against Kurdish fighters, INSTEAD of against ISIS.
Eventually with these awful odds, Kobane will almost certainly fall. Once it does, Turkey needs to decide how much of a threat ISIS is, and potentially take limited military action against them.
Iran has claimed that if Turkey gets involved in the war, they will face 'serious consequences.' This will start with Iran supplying even more clandestine assistance to Turkey's Kurdish enemies and separatist factions. They will also step up support to Syria (Turkey' enemy). Iran will not help ISIS however, as they are a religious and ideological enemy to Iran's Shiite population.
Hopefully Iran's involvement is kept under wraps, but the more widely visible it becomes, the more likely Syria, USA, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and even Israel will 'throw their involvement in the ring.' And besides Iran, Russia is a friend of Syria's, and they would love an opportunity to 'respond' to America for sanctions, just like they did with the Korean war, and Japan did at Pearl Harbor.
As soon as the ISIS conflict expands, specifically with the fall of Kobane, and the potential, eventual loss of Bagdad, the dominoes could begin to fall.
The reaction to further victories by ISIS may increase the call for ground troops, whether they come from USA, Iran, or Turkey. The most likely early scenario would involve Turkish troops engaging in the fight, at the behest of America, with some behind the scenes political sweeteners provided to Turkey from the United States, and which you will never hear about.
Check out my recent penny stocks blog about a stock market crash, oil, North Korea.
= One month ago, I mentioned that with the exception of Nagasaki, there are almost no battles won by air power. The talking heads on CNN seem so dumbfounded. All this air superiority, all these sorties, bombs falling by the dozen, and still ISIS rolls deeper into Bagdad and Kobani.
Spoiler alert - just look at Montecassino or Vietnam or Korea or... Even the Luftwaffe found that their aerial raids just before the Battle of Britain 'did not have the effect predicted by prewar theorists.'
Why does this matter to the stock market? Because there will be an increasing call for boots on the ground, first among politicians, then eventually among the American people when they've been given enough reason... such as American POWs in the event that a Blackhawk gets shot down over Syria.Blackhawk helicopters are increasingly entering the fray against ISIS, as frustration grows surrounding the lack of impact air strikes have been having. The sad fact, however, is that Blackhawks or any type of helicopter are much easier targets than war planes.
The helicopters will be fired upon. Hopefully none get hit. In the awful event that one has an emergency landing in enemy territory, our response will almost certainly be to recover our troops. To do this correctly, it would require American troops. Few will say that we shouldn't get more involved at that point, and we would step over the 'mission creep' fears to do what needs to be done.
Any major transition in the war will have numerous impacts on stocks and commodities, and it is typically a good idea to be positioned ahead of time, rather than along with the reaction of the masses.
As of January 2017 we no longer publish the blog and it has been removed from the webiste menu.
You are reading this old blog entry because we still like to reference it. :-)
You are reading this old blog entry because we still like to reference it. :-)
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